uncertainty

During the election last year, The New York Times ran an uncertainty dial to show where the vote was swaying. Not everyone appreciated it. Many people hate it. The Outline…

During the election, The New York Times showed a live gauge to show the current forecast for Clinton and Trump. It moved to show a 25th to 75th percentile band…

Nate Cohn for the Upshot provides a statistics lesson in the context of election forecasts and why they differ so much. [P]ollsters make a series of decisions when designing their…

With election season in full swing, as far as the news is concerned at least, we get to see poll after poll in the beginning of a voting day and…

As we know, there are various outcomes during election season, with uncertainty in each round. The Upshot is currently using a simulation to show the expectations of tonight. These estimates,…

As we use up current energy resources, it grows more important to look to alternative energy sources. Wind is one potential area, but the problem is that one has to…

A lot of data you get are estimates with uncertainty attached. Plus or minus something. Standard error. So when you try to do math with those numbers straight up, ignoring…

Science is hard. Statistics is hard. Proving cause and effect is hard.

Pennsylvania is considering the use of risk assessment — the chances that someone will commit a crime in the future — in criminal sentencing. Risk assessment is already used in…

David Spiegelhalter, professor of public understanding of risk, does some back-of-the-napkin math to describe why recent prostitution estimates for the UK are problematic. As always, it’s best to do a…

All Things Considered on NPR ran a fine series on how we interpret probability and uncertainty. It came in five bits (plus one follow-up), each five to ten minutes long.…

Most people know the layout of their neighborhoods and some are good with the roads in their town. Zoom out farther though — to your city, state, and country —…

Vivien Marx in Nature Methods: Data from an experiment may appear rock solid. Upon further examination, the data may morph into something much less firm. A knee-jerk reaction to this…