Andrew had some comments about the graphs on Freakonomics that showed a seemingly odd “change of fortune” for Roger Clemens.

You can see that Clemens almost followed an opposite pattern from all other pitchers in the league. As Andrew notes though, there seems to be a lot riding on the quadratic fit and average values when we know that Clemens has been anything but ordinary throughout his long career.

Graphing Without Smoothing

For fun, I tried graphing the ERA data for Clemens against the ERAs for the 16 most recent hall of fame pitchers (that I could get data for). My thinking was the hall-of-famer performances might be a better indicator of what should be “normal” for great pitchers. The results are a little less compelling. However, one thing to note is that most players who played past age 40 saw an increase in ERA while Clemens had a pretty significant improvement in ERA from age 40 to 43.

Whether this is due to performance enhancing drugs or just a change in pitching strategy, coaching, or some other factor, I can’t say. There’s probably only a few people who can know for sure.

Anyways, if anyone has a different take on the data, I’d love to hear it in the comments.

There Is No Single View… – Jock D. Mackinlay and Chris Stolte argue that there is no “holy grail” of data visualization, and that to truly understand our data, we need multiple graphical views.

Seek or Show: Two Design Paradigms for Lots of Data – Ask a user what he wants or show him everything up front.

The Colbert Bump is Real, Colbert’s Nation Not What He Thinks it is – An analysis to show the true effect on books sales after an appearance on The Colbert Report.

Bullet Graphs for Not-to-Exceed Targets – A graphical widget becoming more popular in dashboards.

This guest post is by Mike Love, and he answers my question — “What is data and why should we care about it?”

Instead of answering in the general case, I’d be better off trying to answer it for an area of my interest.

Historical Connections

I think cultural history can be presented as data, and that we could get some benefit out of standardizing some atomic properties of cultural history. There are a couple good efforts at doing this: Artandculture.com is an “interconnected guide to the arts,” where you can see what movement artists and others belonged too. The Knowledge Web is a project of James Burke of the television show ‘Connections’. They are working to encode tens of thousands of historical connections into a database. I have been working on a similar dataset at the open database project Freebase. Each of these projects have moved beyond text (and hypertext) and into the realm of data.

One seemingly trivial advantage of data over text or text with hyperlinks: you can specify that making a connection between person A and person B implies a connection in the reverse direction. This cuts the workload in half: Wikipedians entering relationships into an infobox in Wikipedia have to do twice the work of a person working in a database framework.

Apply Relationships

The more exciting advantage is the kind of applications that are possible once you have settled on a set of relationships. The team working on the Knowledge Web built a graph browser which embeds historical figures in their century and draws lines between these figures. Mousing over a line brings up some descriptive information about the relationship. A team at Metaweb built a graph browser which pulls up pictures of historical figures and lays out their influences and influencees in a circle surrounding them. You can imagine filtering in other ways: show all the connections between artists and writers; show all the cross-cultural connections between China and Europe. You could plug historical data into a recommendation system as well.

There is nothing new about documenting cultural connections. There are many better, probably more reliable books that serve this purpose. (For Western history, I recommend Richard Tarnas’ The Passion of the Western Mind, and Peter Watson’s The Modern Mind.) But to design a dynamic interface to these books would require parsing the English language. Maybe we can do this too.

Matthew Hurst, from Microsoft Live Labs and the co-creator of BlogPulse, answers my question – “What is data and why should we care about it?”

In writing this brief article, I tried to answer the following: what attracts me to data?

An Abundant Resource

Data is everywhere – from the streams of posts in the blogosphere to stock trading graphics spilling from news media to science projects in kindergarten. It permeates our modern world, and yet few of us are equipped to interpret it critically. More importantly, few of us are protected against the misuse and manipulation of the truth via data. Users of databases (who include the millions of users of search engines) are slowly but surely becoming exposed to more sophisticated views of data and thus the average data literacy will, hopefully increase.

Working in the field of data mining is very exciting at this time as it has the potential to truly impact the perception and understanding of the world-as-data. Sites like Swivel and Many Eyes are in some sense at the cutting edge of this progression, with major public databases (like search engines) nervously following their lead.

A fundamental challenge in empowering users with data is the legacy of impoverished tools. Currently, one is required to make many low level interactions in order to synthesize a result required for a task. Consequently, the tools and infrastructure around data interactions have moved towards high volume, immediate response paradigms. However, the added value, increased accuracy and relevance of more sophisticated processes, and the additional investment required on the part of the user to learn how to consume and manipulate enhanced data displays comes with a cost. To make the jump, users will have to be convinced of the value of enhanced interactions and displays, spend a little more time working with the data and so on.

A Vector of Truth

Data, if collected and analysed correctly, can support or refute our intuitions and beliefs. In addition, the anlaysis of data can hint at some very human structures such as those found in language and in the ways in which we conceptualize the world. Data may be used to help us understand our environment. By working with data, we can grasp better models of ourselves and our world.

Beauty in Exploration

Visualization is an essential tool for understanding data and drawing inferences from it. The last ten years of advances in computer performance and graphical displays have opened up the possibilities for displaying data in rich and dynamic ways. This has lead practitioners down a dangerous path balanced between aesthetics – the visual impact and design of data display, and utility – the capability of a visualization to intuitively and efficiently assist the user. That being said, the aesthetics of data visualization can play a huge part in attracting users to the topic being visually described, to encourage them to ask ‘it’s pretty, but what is it?’ Hopefully the answers to that question will lead to better understanding on all fronts.

In their paper Gender Differences in Mate Selection: Evidence from a Speed Dating Experiment, Fisman et al. had a bit of fun with a speed dating dataset. Here’s what they found:

Women put greater weight on the intelligence and the race of partner, while men respond more to physical attractiveness. Moreover, men do not value women’s intelligence or ambition when it exceeds their own. Also, we find that women exhibit a preference for men who grew up in affl­uent neighborhoods. Finally, male selectivity is invariant to group size, while female selectivity is strongly increasing in group size.

The dataset is substantial with over 8,000 observations for answers to twenty something survey questions. With questions like How do you measure up? and What do you look for in the opposite sex?, this dataset is definitely high on human element and should be fun to play with.

[via Statistical Modeling]

This guest post is by Andrew Gelman from Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science. He answers the question – “What is data and why should we care about it?”

Good data are better than bad data, but worst of all are data whose quality you can’t assess. Beyond this, we want to use statistical methods that allow us to combine data from many sources. I’m comfortable with regression and multilevel models, but other methods are out there too. In any case, we have to care about our data because inferences and decisions are just about always data-based, implicitly if not explicitly. Being the person in the room with the hard data gives you authority, as well it should.

Predictify takes James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds to heart. Surowiecki argues that when certain factors are present (for example, group diversity), then the group is always smarter than the individual. Predictify has turned this “principle” into a money-making platform.
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In response to my question, “What is data and why should we care about it?” – Zach Gemignani from Juice Analytics answered:

Obi-Wan Kenobi could have been speaking about data in businesses when he said: “It’s an energy field created by all living things. It surrounds us, and penetrates us. It binds the galaxy together.”

Data is the residue of every action and interaction that takes place in a company, with customers, and in the marketplace. Businesses have created complicated and effective nets to capture this data as it flies off in all directions. Unfortunately, mountains of data mean nothing. Like young Luke Skywalker’s inability to control The Force, a company’s inability to make use of data is nothing more than frustration and untapped potential.

Making use of data takes a subtle combination of capabilities. It takes experience and context about the business, speed and skill to manipulate data, and an ability to visualize and communicate results. Data in the wrong hands is useless if not dangerous; in the right hands data can transform into new insights and informed decisions.

I’ve been fortunate to have worked with people from lots of different fields – statistics, ecology, computer science, engineering, design, etc. If I’ve learned anything, it’s that everyone has a different idea of what data is and why it matters.

I’ve found that until I’ve understood what my collaborators mean by data and what they (and me) are trying to get out of a dataset, it’s near impossible to get anything useful done.

To make things a bit more clear (and for my own enjoyment), I asked a select group of people a single question:

What is data and why should we care about it?

Those who responded are from different areas of expertise, ranging from statistics, to business, to computer science, to design. Some names you’ll recognize while others will be new to you. All are doing interesting things with data.

I’ve been looking forward to this series for a couple of weeks now, and my hope is that you will gain a better understanding about what data is and how people are putting it to use. Keep an eye out for posts with the black square image above.

Here is who has answered so far:

• May the Data Be With You, Young Skywalker by Zach Gemignani
• Data Makes Reasonable Decision-making Possible by Andrew Gelman
• Increasing Data Literacy Across the General Public With Truth and Beauty by Matt Hurst
• Showing Historical & Cultural Connections and Mapping Influence by Mike Love
• Understanding Data, Not Just the Realm of Scientists in Ivory Towers by Hadley Wickham
• A Lesson in Recycling Chartjunk as Junk Art by Kaiser Fung

If you’d like to answer the question yourself, I’d love to see your response too, or if you write an answer on your own blog, please do post the link in the comments below.

I just put down $20 on today’s game for the New York Giants to cover the 12-point spread. Of course, knowing me, I got to thinking how that betting line is decided. Is there one person who calculates the spread? Do Las Vegas casinos just put up numbers based on past experiences? I did a little bit of research, and here’s what I found.
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FedStats – Provides access to the full range of official statistical information produced by the Federal Government, including population, eduction, crime, and health care.

MAPLight – A detailed database that brings together information on campaign contributions and votes in the California legislature. Check out the video tour.

EarthTrends – A collection of information regarding the environmental, social, and economic trends that shape our world.

Angry Employee Deletes All of Company’s Data – A woman about to “lose” her job goes to the office at night and deletes 7 years’ worth of data. Can we say backup, please?

Peter Donnelly talks about the misuse of statistics in his TED talk a couple of years back. The first 2/3 of the talk is an introduction to probability and its role in genetics, which admittedly, didn’t get much of my interest. The last third, however, gets a lot more interesting.

Donnelly talks about a British woman who was wrongly convicted largely in part because of a misuse of statistics. A so-called expert cited how improbable it would be for two children to die of sudden infant death syndrome, but it turns out that “expert” was making incorrect assumptions about the data. This doesn’t surprise me since it happens all the time.

Lesson Learned

People misuse statistics every day (intentionally and unintentionally), and oftentimes it doesn’t hurt much (which doesn’t make it any better), but in this case improper use directly affected someone’s life in a very big way. One of the most common assumptions I see is that every observation is independent, which often is not the case. As a simple example, if it’s raining today, does that change the probability that it will rain tomorrow? What it didn’t rain today?

In other words, the next time you’re thinking of making up or tweaking data, don’t; and the next time you need to analyze some data but aren’t sure how, ask for some help. Statisticians are nice and oh so awesome.

Here’s Donnelly’s talk:

The National Science Foundation is running their annual Science and Engineering Visualization Challenge.

Some of science’s most powerful statements are not made in words. From the diagrams of DaVinci to Hooke’s microscopic bestiary, the beaks of Darwin’s finches, Rosalind Franklin’s x-rays or the latest photographic marvels retrieved from the remotest galactic outback, visualization of research has a long and literally illustrious history. To illustrate is, etymologically and actually, to enlighten.

You can do science without graphics. But it’s very difficult to communicate it in the absence of pictures. Indeed, some insights can only be made widely comprehensible as images. How many people would have heard of fractal geometry or the double helix or solar flares or synaptic morphology or the cosmic microwave background, if they had been described solely in words?

To the general public, whose support sustains the global research enterprise, these and scores of other indispensable concepts exist chiefly as images. They become part of the essential iconic lexicon. And they serve as a source of excitement and motivation for the next generation of researchers.

They’ve been accepting submissions since September of last year and will continue to do so until May 31, 2008. The rules are pretty wide open with last year’s winners in the area of photography, illustration, and interactive and non-interactive media. Basically, it’s whatever you want it to be. The winners will be published in the the journal Science, and one of the winning submissions will get to be on the cover of the prestigious journal.

Whenever I tell people that I study Statistics, they almost always respond, “So what do you do with that?” After they get over their initial shock, I often get, “If I were in Statistics, I’d study sports statistics.” I usually respond by telling them that while it would probably be a lot of fun, I don’t think there is much money in it (because I gotta eat, right?) and that statisticians usually take that as a part time gig. I’m thinking I might have to change that response though, as the game of sports statistics is showing signs of life with the recent Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.

Articles in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (JQAS) come from a wide variety of sports and perspectives and deal with such subjects as tournament structure, frequency and occurrence of records and the optimal focus of training for decathlons. Additionally, the journal serves as an outlet for professionals in the sports world to raise issues and ask questions that relate to quantitative sports analysis. Edited by economist Benjamin Alamar, articles come from a diverse set of disciplines including statistics, operations research, economics, psychology, sports management and business.

Maybe I’ll read regularly and take up sports betting as my new hobby.

Jared Pool had a chat with Andrew (multimedia) and Steve (graphics) at The New York Times. I’m sure you’re familiar with their work. They chat about the design process of the interactive pieces on The Times site like the transcript analyzer, the home run chart, and plenty of other specific examples. They also go into a bit about where they get inspiration from (e.g. old Fortune magazines, photographs, advertisements) as well as how they go about creating their more innovative pieces.

Keep in mind it’s on the User Interface Engineering blog, so it’s mostly focused on, well, the user interaction and design and less on where data comes from, the journalistic process, etc, but still, it’s a pretty good listen.

[via Visual Methods]

For the re-launch of the Microsoft Windows Live platform, Firstborn created a generative art installation taking thousands of smiling faces and placing them into a 3-D world. It was an outdoor installation (done in Processing) projected on a seven-story sphere, and I am sure it wowed a whole lot of people. It’s definitely amazing me, and all I’m seeing are screenshots and a demo.

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Interactive Travel Time and House Price Maps – Tom from Stamen recently announced some really slick mapping. They’re very attractive and very responsive. Sidenote: Look forward to a guest post from Tom in the near future.

175+ Data and Information Visualization Examples and Resources – Meryl has posted an extensive list of visualization examples and resources available online. Thanks for linking here, Meryl!

GPSed – A site that takes advantage of the data available from your mobile phone, mainly pictures and your GPS trace.

Visualizing the History of Living Spaces – Ivanov et al. discuss the challenges of visualizing motion data from 215 motions sensors in a large office building.

Virgil Griffith has created a series of graphs called Books that Make You Dumb. He correlates top books on FaceBook by school and the corresponding schools’ average SAT scores. Notice Freakonomics is pretty far to the right. Nice.

The graphs are of course aren’t really that statistical nor are they especially beautiful, but hey, just take it for what is it, and it’s kind of amusing. Plus, it’s a good example of how you can use data from different sources to find something interesting.

The thing about data is that it can be very convincing. Maybe it’s because it’s so hard to argue against numbers, or maybe it’s just that there’s so much of it. In any case, here’s six datasets that undoubtedly changed the way some people behave or showed us something that brought about a different way of thinking about things. Read More

Those of you who have been around since the beginning know that I am just obsessed with my pedometer. Albeit, lately, I haven’t felt inclined to go for a winter stroll in the below freezing weather. When I was keeping track of my steps though, one of the difficulties was staying consistent. Sometimes I would forget to wear my pedometer, while other times I would forget to record my steps.

I imagine Walker Tracker could help a bit in solving that second problem. I know it was always easier to make it to the gym when I knew one of my friends was going to meet me there. Walker Tracker is like that friend at the gym. The site lets you keep track of your steps as well as see how others are doing.

We’re trying to change the world. We’re trying to get you and us and everyone we know off the elevator and out of the car and onto the sidewalks and trails. We’re doing it one step at a time.
Get up, stand up and walk.

OK, maybe it’s a little hoorah, but if you feel like actually accomplishing a new year’s resolution this year, Walker Tracker could be a good place to start.

[via Web Worker Daily]