For the New York Times, Josh Holder, Niraj Chokshi, and Samuel Granados use a step chart, with arrivals in 2024 and 2025, to show why the decline in European travel to the U.S. might not be as dramatic as previously reported.
International arrivals did drop more than 10 percent in March compared with last year, but this was largely because Easter fell unusually late this year, pushing back a popular travel window for European tourists. More recent figures from April show that travel over the holiday looked similar to previous years.
Contrast the above with reports showing a sudden and steep decline, based on a year-over-year percentage change. What seemed obvious is not so straightforward, for now. You have to watch out for those denominators.