Probability itself is an expression of uncertainty, but the calculations behind the percentages…
probability
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Probability does not exist
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50/50 Spins
For no particular reason on this particular day, here are spinners to try your hand at random everyday things with even odds. Good luck.
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Presidential Election Chances, Practice Run
See how different probabilities lead to different outcomes with an interactive chart.
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Presidential election still a toss-up
You’re probably going to see election forecasts more this month, and one candidate…
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Members Only
Communicating Probability and Odds to People
As election day in the United States draws closer, the probabilities, odds, and forecasts are in full swing, which gives us a chance to check the ways in which we currently communicate the fuzzy numbers.
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Probabilistic Tic-Tac-Toe
Thinking about life and randomness, Cameron Sun modified the classic game of Tic-Tac-Toe.…
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Simulation for Probability of Success
Imagine that you try to do something and there’s a 20% chance of success. If you try to do the thing six times, what is the probability that you succeed at least once?
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Crows might understand probabilities
Researchers at the University of Tübingen are studying crows’ abilities to understand statistical…
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Changes to Blackjack payouts so that gamblers lose more to casinos
Katherine Sayre, for The Wall Street Journal, on Las Vegas casinos squeezing out…
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Impossible or improbable lottery results
There was a government-run lottery in the Philippines with a $4 million jackpot,…
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Introduction to Probability for Data Science, a free book
Introduction to Probability for Data Science is a free-to-download book by Purdue statistics…
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Odds of winning the big Mega Millions prize
With tonight’s Mega Millions jackpot estimated at $1.28 billion, you might be wondering…
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Calculating win probabilities
Zack Capozzi, for USA Lacrosse Magazine, explains how he calculates win probabilities pre-game…
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Looking for similar NBA games, based on win probability time series
Inpredictable, a sports analytics site by Michael Beuoy, tracks win probabilities of NBA…
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Probability you will break up with your partner
Rosenfeld, et al. from Stanford University ran a survey in 2009 for a…
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Chances it’s a Friend’s Birthday Every Single Day of the Year
If it seems like every day you log in to Facebook, it’s someone’s birthday, you’re probably not that far off.
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What That Election Probability Means
You’re going to see probability values mentioned a lot these next few months. Many people will misinterpret. But not you.
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Nearly impossible to predict mass shootings with current data
Even if there were a statistical model that predicted a mass shooter with…
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What probability means in different fields
Statistically, probability ranges from 0 to 1 — impossible to definitely without a…
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The Price is Right winner and cancer survivor calculates the odds
Elisa Long, a professor in Decisions, Operations, and Technology Management at the University…
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