The classic coin flip is treated as a fair way to make decisions, assuming an even chance for heads or tails on each flip. However, František Bartoš was curious and recruited friends and colleagues to record over 350,000 flips. There appeared to be a slight bias.

For Scientific American, Shi En Kim reports:

The flipped coins, according to findings in a preprint study posted on arXiv.org, landed with the same side facing upward as before the toss 50.8 percent of the time. The large number of throws allows statisticians to conclude that the nearly 1 percent bias isn’t a fluke. “We can be quite sure there is a bias in coin flips after this data set,” Bartoš says.

There is probably more than one caveat here, but even though there were a lot of flips, they only came from 48 people and the bias varied across flippers.

Of course, if you’re trying to get a call in your favor, maybe try to catch a glimpse of which side is up and choose accordingly. Couldn’t hurt.

There were many AI-based things in 2023. Simon Willison outlined what we learned over the year:

The most surprising thing we’ve learned about LLMs this year is that they’re actually quite easy to build.

Intuitively, one would expect that systems this powerful would take millions of lines of complex code. Instead, it turns out a few hundred lines of Python is genuinely enough to train a basic version!

What matters most is the training data. You need a lot of data to make these things work, and the quantity and quality of the training data appears to be the most important factor in how good the resulting model is.

For Bloomberg, Peter Millard and Michael D. McDonald report on the efforts to maintain water levels in the Panama Canal.
Falling levels limit the number of ships that can pass through the waterway and that’s a problem when a quarter trillion dollars worth of trade pass through every year.

With each new AI-based tool that comes out, I begrudgingly kick the tires to see what kind of charts it spits out. I need to know when it’s time to hang the old data boots and switch careers. My most recent test subject: Microsoft Image Creator, which is powered by the text-to-image model DALL-E 3. These are “beautiful” charts through the lens of the model.

These are fine, I guess. Obviously they don’t show any real data yet. Maybe my queries need to be more specific, but these mostly feel like charts that were made to accommodate every data choice and angle instead of narrowing down to something useful.

By Reddit user Pitazboras, a movie timeline for Oppenheimer with running time on the x-axis and chronological time on the y-axis. I haven’t seen the movie, so I cannot speak to the accuracy. But it seems confusing.

All Christopher Nolan movies probably deserve a timeline graphic. See also: a flowchart for Inception dream levels.

Here is the good stuff for December in the last roundup for 2023.

Recharge, an art installation by Dries Depoorter, uses a system that detects when you close your eyes. Recharge yourself and your phone gets to also.

YouTube doesn’t offer numbers for how big they are, so Ethan Zuckerman and Jason Baumgartner estimated the size using a method they equate to drunk dialing.

Consider drunk dialing again. Let’s assume you only dial numbers in the 413 area code: 413-000-0000 through 413-999-9999. That’s 10,000,000 possible numbers. If one in 100 phone calls connect, you can estimate that 100,000 people have numbers in the 413 area code. In our case, our drunk dials tried roughly 32k numbers at the same time, and we got a “hit” every 50,000 times or so. Our current estimate for the size of YouTube is 13.325 billion videos – we are now updating this number every few weeks at tubestats.org.

NYT’s The Upshot looked at 424 holiday movies released by the Hallmark and Lifetime networks since 2017. Like most forms of entertainment, the movies look identical from a zoomed out view. There’s a protagonist female who feels lost, finds her way and love in the process.

Get in closer and you see the nuances. Sometimes a couple has to save a candy shop instead of a bakery.

Neo Lu was scammed into a labor camp. In an effort to escape and expose the operation, he began to send information to The New York Times from within.

Mr. Lu said he pleaded to be freed, but his captors refused. They put him to work as an accountant, and over months he tracked millions of dollars in illicit income and managed their day-to-day expenses.

While he was still inside the camp, Mr. Lu contacted The New York Times. He sent hundreds of pages of financial records and photos and videos of the site, hoping to expose the operation at some point.

I was probably slack jawed most of the time while reading this. The graphics and photos about the inner workings and how the scam works, dubbed “pig butchering,” move the story forward.

Here are some fun things to make with data in case you’re looking for a chart-ish distraction.

Kurzgesagt illustrates the scale of the tiniest of things and the biggest of things by zooming in and out, but unlike videos before, they focus on human scale by comparing everything against it at each step.

[arve url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_1Q0XB4X0Y” /]

You’ve probably seen the Powers of Ten, which demonstrates the scale of things by zooming farther and farther away from the universe and then back in to the microscopic level.

However, once people fall out of view, you lose a sense of magnitude. It’s just this is really big and that is really small. With focus on the individual, the Kurzgesagt rendition keeps the scale close as if you’re standing right next to it instead of traveling to an unreachable place.

For Retool, Glenn Fleishman looks back to a time when data on the internet flowed more freely and you were able to direct the streams with a click-and-drag tool called Pipes for Yahoo!

With Pipes, any user could create entries for any number of data sources. While RSS was key, Pipes also let users grab other data and feed formats, like Atom, RDF (incorporated into RSS 2.0), and CSV (comma-separated values, a simple database and spreadsheet export format).

Pipes gave visibility into internal Yahoo sites and services, particularly Flickr, and eventually supported Yahoo Query Language (YQL), a project designed for interoperable in-house and third-party scripting across all of the company’s offerings. With a little elbow grease, you could even retrieve a web page and filter it for specific data.

The Microsoft Excel World Championship 2023 wrapped a couple weeks ago, and the three-hour final that was streamed is available for your viewing pleasure.

[arve url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDGdPE_C9u8″ /]

I know I should be focused on the clicking and dragging and the hot keys, but it’s all about the commentary for me. I watched in fascination, like watching competitive tag on ESPN8.

This year, 2023, was the hottest year on record. For Reuters, Gloria Dickie, Travis Hartman and Clare Trainor highlight the rising temperatures and the bad stuff that follows.

This year’s added warming has been like pouring gasoline on a fire. Extremes became more extreme. Warmer ocean waters fed stronger storms. Heatwaves persisted for weeks instead of days. And wildfires, feeding on dry forests and high temperatures, burned out of control.

An El Nino climate pattern, which emerged in the Eastern Pacific in June, is making things worse, scientists said. It’s boosting the warming caused by climate change, unleashing more catastrophic extremes.

Temperature extremes are still worth highlighting, but there are only so many ways to show an increase over and over again. Maybe someone can make a global warming exhibit that starts at the temperature highs of the 1800s and very quickly increases temperature to current highs. Throw in some VR with storms and wildfires.

Giorgia Lupi, known for using data visualization to connect real life and numbers, has been dealing with long Covid for the past three years. In a visual guest essay for NYT Opinion, Lupi describes her experience of fear, pain, and hope using a spreadsheet and a diary of brush strokes.

I thought that if I collected enough data, I would eventually figure out what was going wrong. But no matter how much data I collected or how many correlations I tried to draw, answers eluded me. Still, I couldn’t stop tracking. My spreadsheet was the only thing I could control in a life I no longer recognized.

In 2015, Lupi worked on Dear Data, which focused on the little joys of life through visualization-based postcards. This moving piece uses a similar style but is on the opposite end of the emotional spectrum.

Worth your time.

Numbers are challenging to understand for many (most?) people, so it can help to use units of measurement that are relatable to readers to reduce friction between data and clarity.

Generate your own plant with Max Richter’s interactive. Adjust leaf shape, density, and curvature. The plane updates in real-time in the browser.