As election day in the United States draws closer, the probabilities, odds, and forecasts are in full swing, which gives us a chance to check the ways in which we currently communicate the fuzzy numbers.
forecast
-
Members Only
Communicating Probability and Odds to People
-
Nate Silver critiques the new 538 forecast model
Nate Silver, who left Disney and the FiveThirtyEight brand last year but took…
-
Accuracy of temperature forecasts where you live
You’ve probably noticed that the weather forecast can change a lot for predictions…
-
Chance of rain and election turnout
There’s rain in the forecast tomorrow in some areas of the United States,…
-
Difficulties reading the cone of uncertainty
It seems that there is always surprise when a hurricane makes landfall in…
-
Potential storm surge flooding map
NOAA provides a map of potential flooding due to Hurricane Ian headed towards…
-
Tips for not letting polls and forecasts occupy your mind for two weeks
For FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver provides tips to stay less stressed staring into the…
-
FiveThirtyEight launches 2020 election forecast
The election is coming. FiveThirtyEight just launched their forecast with a look at…
-
2020 election forecast
The Economist launched their 2020 elections forecast. Right now a part of my…
-
2018 House forecast from FiveThirtyEight
Ever since the huge forecasting upset in 2016, I’ve tended to stay away…
-
Japan fertility rate forecasts versus reality
It’s hard to predict the future, especially when humans are involved. Oftentimes, there…