Flip in win probability for Knicks vs. Spurs

Speaking of when data flips, last night in game four of the 2026 NBA Finals, the New York Knicks were down by as much as 29 points to the San Antonio Spurs. According to Mike Beuoy of Inpredictable, there was a less than 5% chance of the Knicks winning by the middle of the second quarter. With nine minutes left, the Knicks had a less than 1% chance.

Then began the biggest collapse in NBA Finals history by the San Antonio Spurs.