Since early 2024, polls showed near certainty that Conservatives in Canada were going to win the majority of seats in the upcoming federal election. But, as shown by CBC News, Mark Carney replaced Justin Trudeau (among other things) and probabilities flipped in favor of Liberals.
As of April 16, 2025, the Liberals have a 98% chance of winning, up from a previous 1% chance just a few months ago. A flip of such magnitude and speed seems unfathomable here in the United States.
