Role of luck in football wins

NFL Football Operations calculated how much luck has contributed to team wins and losses this season. They considered four actions that involve a lot of randomness: dropped interceptions, dropped passes, missed field goals, and fumble recoveries. Then they took the difference between expected win probability and the chances of the actions to calculate lucky wins and losses.

Normally I live in a football-free household, but someone joined a fantasy football league, which has a way of turning non-fans into obsessive stat checkers.

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