There’s a small site dedicated to Bayesian-informed fantasy football decisions, because of course there is. Here’s the 101 intro.
Here’s the crux of thinking probabilistically about fantasy football: for any given week, when you start a player you’re picking out one of these little x’s at random. Each x is equally likely to get picked. Each score, however, is not. There are a lot more x’s between 0-10 points than there are between 20 and 30.