FEMA flood risk vs. more comprehensive estimates for Camp Mystic

Risk estimates change by statistical model and what that model accounts for. The above map, by Connie Hanzhang Jin for NPR, shows FEMA estimates (orange and yellow lines) against estimates from risk modeling company First Street (blue gradient fill) for the flooded area at Camp Mystic. More buildings fall into range for the latter.

Unfortunately, the discrepancy between FEMA estimates and more updated models that consider rainfall and flash flooding is not new.