Presidential Election Chances, Practice Run

By now you’ve seen or chosen to ignore forecasts that provide probabilities for a presidential candidate winning the election. Run enough elections with a given probability and the results converge. On the other hand, individual outcomes are a lot less certain.

The interactive chart below lets you test the chances for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump winning the electoral college.

Run Elections with Varying Chances

Adjust the chances and see the possible outcomes.

Pro tip: Hold down the button for repeated elections.

It’s tempting to see a candidate with higher chances than another and feel like the results are mostly decided. But as of today and most of this cycle, the election is basically a toss-up.

The moral of the story is to vote, regardless of the forecasts.