More people losing money in prediction markets

For the Washington Post, Jeremy B. Merrill and Leslie Shapiro visualized users who won and lost money on Polymarket. The odds aren’t great.

A lot of users aren’t that good at predicting the future.

They’re losing money at roughly the same rate as online gamblers betting on sports and other real-life events at traditionally sportsbooks, according to the U.K. gambling regulator’s analysis of 2024 data.

This is based on research by Akey et al.

There was a small percentage of big winners, but of those, many appeared to be professionals placing thousands or even millions of bets in an automated way. Then there are those who probably have insider knowledge.

Maybe put your cash in a savings account. If you’re really after favorable odds, stick it under the mattress. It just won’t be as fun as losing money incrementally.