Nate Silver, who left Disney and the FiveThirtyEight brand last year but took his forecast models with him, is not a fan of the new models on 538, developed by G. Elliott Morris:
I thought the 538 model seemed basically reasonable when it was first published in June, showing the race as a toss-up. But its behavior since the debate — Biden has actually gained ground in their forecast over the past few weeks even though their polling average has moved toward Trump by 2 points! — raises a lot of questions. This may be by design — Morris seems to believe it’s too early to really look at the polls at all. But If my model was behaving like this, I’d be concerned.
Moreover, some of the internal workings of the model are strange, or at least appear that way based on the information Morris has made publicly available.
Silver has his own forecast. It currently places more weight on polls, which makes possible outcomes a lot less favorable for Joe Biden.
There’s much uncertainty around the election right now, so I wouldn’t lean on any forecast numbers at this point. But I like learning the thought process behind the models.
