Increased case counts not just from increased testing

July 3, 2020

Topic

Statistics  /  , ,

Some attribute increased Covid-19 case counts to increased testing. While that is certainly part of the reason, it doesn’t explain it all when you compare testing rates against the increase in positives.

Charles Ornstein and Ash Ngu for ProPublica:

In other states, including Arizona, Texas and Florida, which did not see a wave of early cases and deaths, the increase in positive results has far surpassed testing growth. In Florida, testing has even decreased a bit comparing the seven days through Tuesday to the same period before Memorial Day. (Florida recorded an abnormally high number of new tests on May 20, which may have inflated the rolling average on May 25.)

But what about decreased virus-related deaths? Death doesn’t come right after a positive test, which means death rate doesn’t increase at the same time that cases increase. There’s a lag. So we’re not in the clear yet.