Multi-Year Itch

The seven-year itch, popularized by the 1955 film of the same name, suggests that married couples and those in long-term relationships grow tired of each other at the seven-year mark.

How true is this sentiment? If the seven-year itch is a real thing, then it seems fair to expect that divorce rates would peak around seven years, or at least start to climb.

Maybe there is a way to see this through data.

The American Community Survey, from the United States Census Bureau, asks people if they were divorced in the past year. The survey also asks when respondents were last married.

Subtract one from the other and you get the number of years a person was married before divorce. I calculated using the latest five-year data, from 2019 to 2023.

Peak divorce appears to vary, depending on how many times a person married.

Divorced in the past year

Overall, there are two peaks. One peak is before making it a full year, and the second is at the fourth year. Rates actually start to decline after seven years.

Ending first marriages

Those in their first marriage seem to stay married longer. The first peak at 0 disappears and the peak at 4 years remains.

Ending second marriages

The distribution shifts dramatically among those in their second marriage. Year 0 and 1 are a lot more common than in first marriages. There is still a second peak at 4 years (not 7).

Ending third marriages or more

By the third marriage and beyond, it appears that people are a lot more likely to end things early on. There is an upwards trend towards year 6, but it looks insignificant compared to year 0.

The seven-year itch does not seem to be real. At least through this data, it looks like if divorce happens, it happens earlier or with decreasing chances later. The seven-year mark does not stand out.

Higher marriage count increases the likelihood of divorce in earlier years. Perhaps people who went through marriage already know more quickly that it will not work out, or older people might be less willing to wait around and see.

Maybe the itch is not enough to end marriages. Maybe it is just a feeling that passes. An itch. After all, the movie ends with the husband going to find his wife.

Or, the movie was just an excuse to feature Marilyn Monroe in 1955.

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Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau, IPUMS