# probability

• ## Chances it’s a Friend’s Birthday Every Single Day of the Year

If it seems like every day you log in to Facebook, it’s someone’s birthday, you're probably not that far off.

• ## What That Election Probability Means

You're going to see probability values mentioned a lot these next few months. Many people will misinterpret. But not you.

• ### Nearly impossible to predict mass shootings with current data

Even if there were a statistical model that predicted a mass shooter with 99 percent accuracy, that still leaves a lot of false positives. And when you’re dealing with individuals…

• ### What probability means in different fields

Statistically, probability ranges from 0 to 1 — impossible to definitely without a doubt. Math with Bad Drawings characterized what those values mean in various fields of expertise. This amuses…

• ### The Price is Right winner and cancer survivor calculates the odds

Elisa Long, a professor in Decisions, Operations, and Technology Management at the University of California, Los Angeles, was diagnosed with breast cancer. The Price is Right films a breast cancer…

• ### How well we don’t understand probability

All Things Considered on NPR ran a fine series on how we interpret probability and uncertainty. It came in five bits (plus one follow-up), each five to ten minutes long.…

• ### A visual explanation of conditional probability

Victor Powell, who has visualized the Central Limit Theorem and Simpson’s Paradox, most recently provided a visual explainer for conditional probability. Two bars, one blue and one red, represent two…