NBA player career projections

As the NBA basketball season gets started, FiveThirtyEight has their player projections for how much each will contribute to their team not just this year but in future seasons. The system is called CARMELO. It stands for Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization but mostly an excuse to name it CARMELO.

Nate Silver describes how they produced the projections and its similarities to his work in 2003 with baseball player projections. Two main steps: define player skills, and then find similar players in NBA history and look at how they performed.

And naturally, attach a whole lot of uncertainty.

Finally, bringing it all together: win-loss record projections for every team.

Favorites

Watching the growth of Walmart – now with 100% more Sam’s Club

The ever so popular Walmart growth map gets an update, and yes, it still looks like a wildfire. Sam’s Club follows soon after, although not nearly as vigorously.

How You Will Die

So far we’ve seen when you will die and how other people tend to die. Now let’s put the two together to see how and when you will die, given your sex, race, and age.

Shifting Incomes for American Jobs

For various occupations, the difference between the person who makes the most and the one who makes the least can be significant.

How to Spot Visualization Lies

Many charts don’t tell the truth. This is a simple guide to spotting them.