NBA player career projections

As the NBA basketball season gets started, FiveThirtyEight has their player projections for how much each will contribute to their team not just this year but in future seasons. The system is called CARMELO. It stands for Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization but mostly an excuse to name it CARMELO.

Nate Silver describes how they produced the projections and its similarities to his work in 2003 with baseball player projections. Two main steps: define player skills, and then find similar players in NBA history and look at how they performed.

And naturally, attach a whole lot of uncertainty.

Finally, bringing it all together: win-loss record projections for every team.

Favorites

Marrying Age

People get married at various ages, but there are definite trends that vary across demographic groups. What do these trends look like?

Reviving the Statistical Atlas of the United States with New Data

Due to budget cuts, there is no plan for an updated atlas. So I recreated the original 1870 Atlas using today’s publicly available data.

10 Best Data Visualization Projects of 2015

These are my picks for the best of 2015. As usual, they could easily appear in a different order on a different day, and there are projects not on the list that were also excellent.

Where People Run in Major Cities

There are many exercise apps that allow you to keep track of your running, riding, and other activities. Record speed, …