NBA player career projections

As the NBA basketball season gets started, FiveThirtyEight has their player projections for how much each will contribute to their team not just this year but in future seasons. The system is called CARMELO. It stands for Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization but mostly an excuse to name it CARMELO.

Nate Silver describes how they produced the projections and its similarities to his work in 2003 with baseball player projections. Two main steps: define player skills, and then find similar players in NBA history and look at how they performed.

And naturally, attach a whole lot of uncertainty.

Finally, bringing it all together: win-loss record projections for every team.


Pizza Place Geography

Most of the major pizza chains are within a 5-mile radius of where I live, so I have my pick, …

Graphical perception – learn the fundamentals first

Before you dive into the advanced stuff – like just about everything in your life – you have to learn the fundamentals before you know when you can break the rules.

Think Like a Statistician – Without the Math

I call myself a statistician, because, well, I’m a statistics graduate student. However, the most important things I’ve learned are less formal, but have proven extremely useful when working/playing with data.

10 Best Data Visualization Projects of 2015

These are my picks for the best of 2015. As usual, they could easily appear in a different order on a different day, and there are projects not on the list that were also excellent.