Every NBA team’s chances of winning, by game minute

Feb 26, 2015

Michael Beuoy made a win probability model for NBA teams and games, based on play-by-play data from 2000 to 2012. The basic calculator lets you punch in the game state, such as time left and the score difference, and it spits out the probability of a win.

Or, for a team-centric view, you can see the chart from Beuoy and Allison McCann for FiveThirtyEight, which plots the average probability using the same model. Steady rise means a steady pull towards a win, whereas spikes and steeper, positive slopes mean a tendency towards scoring spurts.


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10 Best Data Visualization Projects of 2015

These are my picks for the best of 2015. As usual, they could easily appear in a different order on a different day, and there are projects not on the list that were also excellent.

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Data is an abstraction, and it’s impossible to encapsulate everything it represents in real life. So there is uncertainty. Here are ways to visualize the uncertainty.