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	<title>Comments on: Road to Recovery &#8211; Is the Recovery Act working?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/</link>
	<description>Strength in Numbers</description>
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		<title>By: Soquel by the Creek</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-42161</link>
		<dc:creator>Soquel by the Creek</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Apr 2010 17:41:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-42161</guid>
		<description>This was an interesting chart. Most people that I showed it to (engineers, accountants) assumed at first glance that the chart showed total unemployment, which didn&#039;t make sense to anyone.  Only later did we figure out that it shows net monthly job loss/gain, or the first derivative.

As political propaganda, was this purposely meant to be deceptive?  I don&#039;t know.  However, we were able to successfully find the data sources and recreate the data.

What Does the Obama Job Chart Really Mean? 
http://soquelbythecreek.blogspot.com/2010/02/what-does-obama-job-chart-really-mean.html

As they say, &quot;correlation does not imply causation.&quot;  The timing is indeed interesting, but the fact there there was so much uncertainty between the end of Bush&#039;s term and the start of the Obama Presidency, I&#039;m not surprised that ANY government acknowledgement of the problem might have stopped or slowed the job losses.

The fact that the Stimulus spending is spread out over such a long period does not correlate well.  Most of the Stimulus money is still to be spent, a year after passage.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This was an interesting chart. Most people that I showed it to (engineers, accountants) assumed at first glance that the chart showed total unemployment, which didn&#8217;t make sense to anyone.  Only later did we figure out that it shows net monthly job loss/gain, or the first derivative.</p>
<p>As political propaganda, was this purposely meant to be deceptive?  I don&#8217;t know.  However, we were able to successfully find the data sources and recreate the data.</p>
<p>What Does the Obama Job Chart Really Mean?<br />
<a href="http://soquelbythecreek.blogspot.com/2010/02/what-does-obama-job-chart-really-mean.html" rel="nofollow">http://soquelbythecreek.blogsp.....-mean.html</a></p>
<p>As they say, &#8220;correlation does not imply causation.&#8221;  The timing is indeed interesting, but the fact there there was so much uncertainty between the end of Bush&#8217;s term and the start of the Obama Presidency, I&#8217;m not surprised that ANY government acknowledgement of the problem might have stopped or slowed the job losses.</p>
<p>The fact that the Stimulus spending is spread out over such a long period does not correlate well.  Most of the Stimulus money is still to be spent, a year after passage.</p>
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		<title>By: thinkahol</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41853</link>
		<dc:creator>thinkahol</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Apr 2010 11:28:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41853</guid>
		<description>Let&#039;s not forget that the market has tended to do better under Democratic presidents over decades.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/political-party-democrat-republican-stock-returns.asp

http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/001656.htm

http://slate.msn.com/default.aspx?id=2071929</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s not forget that the market has tended to do better under Democratic presidents over decades.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/political-party-democrat-republican-stock-returns.asp" rel="nofollow">http://www.investopedia.com/ar.....eturns.asp</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.perrspectives.com/blog/archives/001656.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.perrspectives.com/b.....001656.htm</a></p>
<p><a href="http://slate.msn.com/default.aspx?id=2071929" rel="nofollow">http://slate.msn.com/default.aspx?id=2071929</a></p>
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		<title>By: Steve Wells</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41825</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Wells</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Apr 2010 17:44:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41825</guid>
		<description>So, gnomic, do you include yourself in the &quot;People&quot; (seems all-inclusive to me) that &quot;believe what their ideology or religion... tells them to believe?&quot;

What&#039;s your ideology/religion and what facts and data are you misusing?  Maybe the generalization about Fox News &quot;followers&quot; living in a cult-like alternate reality?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So, gnomic, do you include yourself in the &#8220;People&#8221; (seems all-inclusive to me) that &#8220;believe what their ideology or religion&#8230; tells them to believe?&#8221;</p>
<p>What&#8217;s your ideology/religion and what facts and data are you misusing?  Maybe the generalization about Fox News &#8220;followers&#8221; living in a cult-like alternate reality?</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Wells</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41823</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Wells</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Apr 2010 17:34:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41823</guid>
		<description>Yes, the message is clear: There was a recession during the Bush years where jobs were lost and now that time has passed, job loss has slowed as the pace could never be sustained indefinitely.

Riveting.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, the message is clear: There was a recession during the Bush years where jobs were lost and now that time has passed, job loss has slowed as the pace could never be sustained indefinitely.</p>
<p>Riveting.</p>
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		<title>By: Steve Wells</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41822</link>
		<dc:creator>Steve Wells</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Apr 2010 17:31:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41822</guid>
		<description>I agree with the Libertarian.  The chart is misleading to say &quot;Administration&quot; as it implies that the movement in the chart is due to actions of either the Bush or Obama administrative policies (also because it represents job losses not jobs).

Rather, the chart should say &quot;Bush Years&quot; and &quot;Obama Years&quot; thus divorcing policies from economic movements, which move only in part due to policies reacting more to things like demographic shifts (e.g. Boomers passing peak spending years), major events (e.g. 9/11), and global economic developments (e.g. the rise of China as a manufacturing powerhouse).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with the Libertarian.  The chart is misleading to say &#8220;Administration&#8221; as it implies that the movement in the chart is due to actions of either the Bush or Obama administrative policies (also because it represents job losses not jobs).</p>
<p>Rather, the chart should say &#8220;Bush Years&#8221; and &#8220;Obama Years&#8221; thus divorcing policies from economic movements, which move only in part due to policies reacting more to things like demographic shifts (e.g. Boomers passing peak spending years), major events (e.g. 9/11), and global economic developments (e.g. the rise of China as a manufacturing powerhouse).</p>
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		<title>By: Stefan Lasiewski</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41759</link>
		<dc:creator>Stefan Lasiewski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Apr 2010 20:28:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41759</guid>
		<description>&gt;&gt;&gt; Now, the job loss has stopped, for a moment, if we include census employees.  &lt;&lt;&lt;

Not true. Even if you exclude the 58,000 temporary census workers, or exclude ALL government workers, the private sector still added over 100,000 jobs in the last few months.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&gt;&gt;&gt; Now, the job loss has stopped, for a moment, if we include census employees.  &lt;&lt;&lt;</p>
<p>Not true. Even if you exclude the 58,000 temporary census workers, or exclude ALL government workers, the private sector still added over 100,000 jobs in the last few months.</p>
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		<title>By: Stefan Lasiewski</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41758</link>
		<dc:creator>Stefan Lasiewski</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Apr 2010 20:22:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41758</guid>
		<description>Kiplinger.com has provided their own graph. See it here:

http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/labor-market-gains-point-to-better-times.html

Their graph only includes private-sector jobs (No temporary bump from the 58,000 Census workers), and they attempt to smooth out the graph over several months, to account for the seasonal increase in construction workers. 

This graph also goes back to early 2007, to show some numbers from before the recession.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kiplinger.com has provided their own graph. See it here:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/labor-market-gains-point-to-better-times.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.kiplinger.com/busin.....times.html</a></p>
<p>Their graph only includes private-sector jobs (No temporary bump from the 58,000 Census workers), and they attempt to smooth out the graph over several months, to account for the seasonal increase in construction workers. </p>
<p>This graph also goes back to early 2007, to show some numbers from before the recession.</p>
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		<title>By: J. D. Crow</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41750</link>
		<dc:creator>J. D. Crow</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Apr 2010 11:54:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41750</guid>
		<description>having studied the basic laws of economics for three years I know that this is total B.S. .  Any economic recession by its nature will create its own recovery, both due to capital accumulation and a lower cost of investment.  The last two presidents(conservative and moderate) both had booms and busts in their terms, because it wasn&#039;t their doing.  The President does have economic responsibilities, but that said it isn&#039;t an easy thing to measure as many of his decisions don&#039;t affect us for a long while. e.g. the rule of 70 says that an economy doubling happens every 70/%growth, with the U.S. averaging 2% growth or a doubling every 35 years, that&#039;s something that presidents do affect, but it&#039;s hard to see 35 years into the future.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>having studied the basic laws of economics for three years I know that this is total B.S. .  Any economic recession by its nature will create its own recovery, both due to capital accumulation and a lower cost of investment.  The last two presidents(conservative and moderate) both had booms and busts in their terms, because it wasn&#8217;t their doing.  The President does have economic responsibilities, but that said it isn&#8217;t an easy thing to measure as many of his decisions don&#8217;t affect us for a long while. e.g. the rule of 70 says that an economy doubling happens every 70/%growth, with the U.S. averaging 2% growth or a doubling every 35 years, that&#8217;s something that presidents do affect, but it&#8217;s hard to see 35 years into the future.</p>
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		<title>By: libertarian0</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-41698</link>
		<dc:creator>libertarian0</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Apr 2010 16:54:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-41698</guid>
		<description>Mr. Obama is a master of the tools in the old book &quot;How to Lie with Statistics&quot;. Let me highlight a few issues, starting by pointing out that this plot does not represent &quot;jobs&quot;, but rather the change in jobs (math wonks call this &quot;the first derivative&quot;). The correct plot requires a plot of actual jobs; you must add up all of the negative bars on the left. Then you notice that the job &quot;gains&quot; on the right are negligible.

We also must remember that the important issue is POLICY, not PARTY. Following the election of a Democrat Congress in 2006 (off the graph to the left), Bush adopted the Keynesian and corporate socialist policies of the Democrats (as Richard Nixon &quot;We are all Keynesians now&quot; did, creating the Nixon Carter recession).

Keynesians borrow money from the private sector and spend it on politically favored economic activity. The overwhelming body of peer reviewed economic scholarship shows that this loses jobs  (tax cuts cause job increases). The first Keynesian &quot;stimulus&quot; bill was under Bush in early 2008 (jobs dropped). The second is under Obama. Jobs dropped horribly. 

In short, the policies still being advocated by the Democrats, implemented by a Democrat congress with the complicity of both Republicans and Democrat presidents, have lost nearly 7 million jobs, an average wait of 27 months for reemployment, and a 20% underemployment. Now, the job loss has stopped, for a moment, if we include census employees. 

Of course, the jobs loss HAD to stop somewhere; everyone can be unemployed. But this is not a vindication of the policies.

Admittedly, any Republican who does NOT run on &quot;Repeal and Replace&quot; will NOT have an effective message against the misgovernment that Democrat policies constitute. They MUST run as Reaganites, recognizing that &quot;government is the problem&quot;. restoring the rule of law to economic transactions (no more taxpayer money to unions who supported Obama), and lowering the burden of government on people who create jobs.

The Democrats could ALSO be successful if they also support such sensible policies. If they do not, they will need to lie with statistics, as in this plot.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mr. Obama is a master of the tools in the old book &#8220;How to Lie with Statistics&#8221;. Let me highlight a few issues, starting by pointing out that this plot does not represent &#8220;jobs&#8221;, but rather the change in jobs (math wonks call this &#8220;the first derivative&#8221;). The correct plot requires a plot of actual jobs; you must add up all of the negative bars on the left. Then you notice that the job &#8220;gains&#8221; on the right are negligible.</p>
<p>We also must remember that the important issue is POLICY, not PARTY. Following the election of a Democrat Congress in 2006 (off the graph to the left), Bush adopted the Keynesian and corporate socialist policies of the Democrats (as Richard Nixon &#8220;We are all Keynesians now&#8221; did, creating the Nixon Carter recession).</p>
<p>Keynesians borrow money from the private sector and spend it on politically favored economic activity. The overwhelming body of peer reviewed economic scholarship shows that this loses jobs  (tax cuts cause job increases). The first Keynesian &#8220;stimulus&#8221; bill was under Bush in early 2008 (jobs dropped). The second is under Obama. Jobs dropped horribly. </p>
<p>In short, the policies still being advocated by the Democrats, implemented by a Democrat congress with the complicity of both Republicans and Democrat presidents, have lost nearly 7 million jobs, an average wait of 27 months for reemployment, and a 20% underemployment. Now, the job loss has stopped, for a moment, if we include census employees. </p>
<p>Of course, the jobs loss HAD to stop somewhere; everyone can be unemployed. But this is not a vindication of the policies.</p>
<p>Admittedly, any Republican who does NOT run on &#8220;Repeal and Replace&#8221; will NOT have an effective message against the misgovernment that Democrat policies constitute. They MUST run as Reaganites, recognizing that &#8220;government is the problem&#8221;. restoring the rule of law to economic transactions (no more taxpayer money to unions who supported Obama), and lowering the burden of government on people who create jobs.</p>
<p>The Democrats could ALSO be successful if they also support such sensible policies. If they do not, they will need to lie with statistics, as in this plot.</p>
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		<title>By: Dennis Hollingsead</title>
		<link>http://flowingdata.com/2010/02/17/road-to-recovery-is-the-recovery-act-working/#comment-40962</link>
		<dc:creator>Dennis Hollingsead</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Mar 2010 17:55:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://flowingdata.com/?p=5496#comment-40962</guid>
		<description>The job numbers are probably accurate. But causation has not been proved. Can&#039;t we go back in history and see similar patterns of economic recovery with or without huge stimulus packages? The economy is so complex that pointing out one variable as the cause for job growth is just plain silly!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The job numbers are probably accurate. But causation has not been proved. Can&#8217;t we go back in history and see similar patterns of economic recovery with or without huge stimulus packages? The economy is so complex that pointing out one variable as the cause for job growth is just plain silly!</p>
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