Comments on: Who’s Leading Whom? Predictive Markets Versus Polls

By: Polls lead the prediction markets « The Enlightened Despot

Polls lead the prediction markets « The Enlightened Despot — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 05:41:12 +0000

[...] so a tool that was supposed to give us more predictive power seems to give us no new information.Â Here is a more detailed look, via [...]

By: Nigel Eccles

Nigel Eccles — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 16:59:20 +0000

@Robert Still very much in beta. We want to have lots of data driven chart goodness soon.

By: Robert Morton

Robert Morton — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 16:52:28 +0000

@Nigel, hubdub looks cool and I can see what brought you to this topic on FlowingData!

By: Nigel Eccles

Nigel Eccles — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 16:26:10 +0000

@Robert

Excellent, that was lucky! Great analysis. I expect I will link to it every time I get into a polls v markets debate.

By: Robert Morton

Robert Morton — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 16:30:14 +0000

@ Nigel Eccles — Fortunately for our examination, the market manipulation on Intrade is limited to the specific market for Obama vs. McCain, while we chose the more abstract Democrat vs. Republican market. Also note that the post on Tableau Software Blogs is up now.

By: John Allsopp

John Allsopp — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 11:41:35 +0000

Some very detailed analysis from a widely read Australian psephologist here

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pol.....g-pattern/

he’s been following intrade versus polls for some months, and doing all kind of analysis, with pretty graphs.

By: Nigel Eccles

Nigel Eccles — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 10:19:48 +0000

This is fantastic analysis and the first I’ve seen that shows market forecasts clearly preceding the polls.

Did you consider looking at other markets like Betfair? One problem with Intrade is that it’s forecasts have been badly manipulated for the past month. I’ve often notice it fail to register shifts which Betfair has registered.

BTW The Tableau blog link is saying I’m not authorized to see that page.