Comments on: Comparing Roger Clemens to Hall of Fame Pitchers http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/ Strength in Numbers Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:06:54 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Nathan http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1674 Nathan Thu, 14 Feb 2008 05:37:13 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1674 wcw, i think you're right about ERA being flawed, which is interesting, because ERA is so often quoted as if it were a performance measure. i wonder if it's just b/c it's easiest for the most people to understand. wcw, i think you’re right about ERA being flawed, which is interesting, because ERA is so often quoted as if it were a performance measure. i wonder if it’s just b/c it’s easiest for the most people to understand.

]]> By: wcw http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1646 wcw Tue, 12 Feb 2008 08:07:09 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1646 Well... ERA is a flawed measure. It measures defense and luck more than pitching skill, for one. It measures context as much as it does the pitcher. And it conveniently elides durability. As an object lesson, take Carlton's last season (which baseball-reference has as age-43) in 1988. He got a grand 29 outs, more telling by far than his awful performance. Clemens's 2005, he essayed 634 outs, and put in his yeoman's effort in a half-run-per-game higher-ERA environment. If you must use ERA, try b-r's ERA+ measure. 'Tain't perfect, but it isn't bad. Well…

ERA is a flawed measure.

It measures defense and luck more than pitching skill, for one. It measures context as much as it does the pitcher. And it conveniently elides durability.

As an object lesson, take Carlton’s last season (which baseball-reference has as age-43) in 1988. He got a grand 29 outs, more telling by far than his awful performance. Clemens’s 2005, he essayed 634 outs, and put in his yeoman’s effort in a half-run-per-game higher-ERA environment.

If you must use ERA, try b-r’s ERA+ measure. ‘Tain’t perfect, but it isn’t bad.

]]> By: Garrett http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1640 Garrett Tue, 12 Feb 2008 02:41:23 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1640 One thing to note is that the allegations of Clemens' steroid use go back to at least 1998, which covers some of the highest as well as the lowest ERAs of his career. One thing to note is that the allegations of Clemens’ steroid use go back to at least 1998, which covers some of the highest as well as the lowest ERAs of his career.

]]> By: Eliezer http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1638 Eliezer Tue, 12 Feb 2008 01:42:24 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1638 Nathan: Can you provide the list of the 16 most recent HOF pitchers that you used for your comparison? If you have their baseball-databank IDs, that would be even better, but not necessary. Nathan: Can you provide the list of the 16 most recent HOF pitchers that you used for your comparison? If you have their baseball-databank IDs, that would be even better, but not necessary.

]]> By: Jon Peltier http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1626 Jon Peltier Mon, 11 Feb 2008 21:08:37 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1626 Clemens' inning counts were low lately because missed some starts in recent seasons for injuries, and last year he waited until after the season started to decide whether to play, and didn't even start pitching until June or so. I saw an alternative analysis of Clemens' stats, which took into account walks, strikeouts, and home runs, either on the Freakonomics blog or on a page they cited. I can't find it now, because the blog isn't answering my browser. Clemens’ inning counts were low lately because missed some starts in recent seasons for injuries, and last year he waited until after the season started to decide whether to play, and didn’t even start pitching until June or so.

I saw an alternative analysis of Clemens’ stats, which took into account walks, strikeouts, and home runs, either on the Freakonomics blog or on a page they cited. I can’t find it now, because the blog isn’t answering my browser.

]]> By: Nathan http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1625 Nathan Mon, 11 Feb 2008 20:31:39 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1625 Clemens played fewer innings the past two seasons than any other season in his career, but could it be just because he's getting older and doesn't heal as quickly? Clemens played fewer innings the past two seasons than any other season in his career, but could it be just because he’s getting older and doesn’t heal as quickly?

]]> By: Hadyn http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1624 Hadyn Mon, 11 Feb 2008 19:32:03 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1624 I was talking with a baseball mad friend who loves Roger Clemens yesterday about this. We were discussing the "hall of fame" effect on his pitching in later years. Given that all of his managers want him to get into the hall of fame they might pull him early if it looks like his stats will take a hit (no pun intended). Would this effect the numbers that much? I was talking with a baseball mad friend who loves Roger Clemens yesterday about this. We were discussing the “hall of fame” effect on his pitching in later years.

Given that all of his managers want him to get into the hall of fame they might pull him early if it looks like his stats will take a hit (no pun intended). Would this effect the numbers that much?

]]> By: Nathan http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1622 Nathan Mon, 11 Feb 2008 18:25:41 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1622 @hadley: i guess not. i just didn't want a big, gray and non-interactive blobby. @dave: One interesting note -- Clemens' ERA improvement, that started at age 40, spans across play with the Yankees <em>and</em> the Astros. You do bring up a good point though, and strikeout ratio is definitely worth investigating. Maybe someone would like to give that a try. @hadley: i guess not. i just didn’t want a big, gray and non-interactive blobby.

@dave: One interesting note — Clemens’ ERA improvement, that started at age 40, spans across play with the Yankees and the Astros. You do bring up a good point though, and strikeout ratio is definitely worth investigating. Maybe someone would like to give that a try.

]]> By: Dave F http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1620 Dave F Mon, 11 Feb 2008 17:06:26 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1620 You might try looking at walk to strikeout ratio, as that's the only statistic that the pitcher truly has control over. He may have had a less hitter-friendly park in Houston for his low ERA, may have had better defense behind him, or simply could have had outstanding luck that season. You might try looking at walk to strikeout ratio, as that’s the only statistic that the pitcher truly has control over. He may have had a less hitter-friendly park in Houston for his low ERA, may have had better defense behind him, or simply could have had outstanding luck that season.

]]> By: Hadley http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1616 Hadley Mon, 11 Feb 2008 13:26:58 +0000 http://flowingdata.com/2008/02/11/comparing-roger-clemens-to-hall-of-fame-pitchers/#comment-1616 Is there some evidence to believe that no previous pitcher has taken performance enhancing drugs? ;) Is there some evidence to believe that no previous pitcher has taken performance enhancing drugs? ;)

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